Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Pirates: Review of the Season Predictions

This is an email from myself to Runhigh earlier this year when he was out in Harrisburg. I basically make my Pirate predictions for the year after the first two weeks:

I wanted to mention that Ryan Doumit, Nate McLouth, and Xavier Nady are all having great seasons to start. This means:

1) 1 of the 3 will start to slump soon and become a non-factor. Then be traded in the off-season and become an all-star on another team. I think this will be Doumit since he's young and can destroy our love of baseball for another 10 years (see Aramis Ramirez).

2) 1 of the remaining 2 will be traded for 4-5 players to a contender after the All-Star break. I think this will be Nady since he has power and is a veteran. We'll send some other player from the roster with him (and the second player will promptly be placed in the minor leagues where they belong). We'll receive 2 utility players, 1 player who was a decent player before and is now a mediocre starter. The mediocre starter will then re-injure something but we'll still overpay him in the off-season. Then we'll get two more minor-leaguers who we've never heard of and neither one of them will make it out of Double A ball.

3) The last will slump next season, Be a non-factor for 2 years and then be recycled to the first role of being traded in the off-season and become an all-star on another team. I choose McLouth. Although that role is kind of Bay's. So Bay is about to be traded this season. Bay will hit 36 homeruns next year on the Wild Card Toronto Blue Jays (I only say them 'cause they're Canadian) or some other American League team. Mark my words ... It WILL happen.

When I pulled this email up I laughed my ass off. And then I got nervous. It was scary accurate on some predictions.

1) I don't think Doumit slumped at all this season. Not that I recall at least. I remember the broken finger. Does that count? It's something similar but Doumit was pretty solid while in the lineup. He does have all-star potential if he just gets his power numbers up a little. But as a solid .323 hitter with a decent 15 homeruns so far he isn't quite there yet. He's young and he's one of the players we need to lock up in long term during the off-season. I never understood why Paulino got the bid over Doumit. I hated Paulino. I thought he was too streaky of a hitter and absolutely sucked defensively. If you want a catcher that will hit occasionally and allow tons of passed balls and runners stealing as much as they want then Ronnie Paulino is your man. Doumit hopefully will stay as consistent or better on the Pirates.

2) Nady was traded because of exactly what I said. The Yankees needed a solid power hitting veteran. While we didn't include the 'should be a minor leaguer' that I thought we would. Damaso Marte left with him and we received 4 players in return. A surprisingly accurate call. The prospects are a little more promising than I thought. But when you're use to Bonifay/ Littlefield and you jump up to Huntington I guess that's what happens. And at that point in the season nobody could tell if the Pirates had another GM like in past years. But only time will tell how good those prospects are so I guess my prediction could end up accurate. Let's hope not.

3) Let's hope I'm dead wrong about this somewhat future prediction of McLouth slumping next season. Maybe he got it out of the way with this second half of the 2008 year. He did slump pretty badly, going from around a solid .333+ hitter to a .280 hitter now. Not the kind of ending you want a young kid like this to have. He's another guy we want to lock up during the off-season. We'll also need his bat to lead this team for the next few years.

As for my Bay prediction, damn I hate when I'm right like that! I loved Bay and Bay (and his wife) were noted for saying how much they loved living in the city of Pittsburgh. That easily made him a signable player. If we're lucky we'll get him back when free agency hits for him. Probably not though. I called the Blue Jays for our Canadian fellow and he didn't land there but he did land on the Wild Card Red Sox (another AL East team). So I'll jot down a prediction point for me. I'm glad to see Bay playing so well and having fun winning. It couldn't have happened to a nicer guy. Hopefully they'll enjoy some post-season success and lose without making it to the World Series. I mean come on ... It's still the Red Sox.

Just think about it though. If Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny had the years they should of or even half decent years and the Pirates pitching won a few here and there, do you think we would have ever traded Bay or Nady? We could have easily been where the Astros are now ... Just a few games back of the wild card lead.
Wait till next year.

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