NFL PICKS: Week 5

So last week comes and I get back on track with another good week of picks. I've figured out that I have to keep myself from getting cocky or else I'll end up throwing out a gopher and pick 25%. Picking 75% is so much better. I've also learned that you can't bet on Denver's Defense ... I mean that weak as group of guys they trot out when their defense should be on the field. I've learned that Favre guy can still 'sling' the football down the field a few times . . . even if it is only against a weak NFC West team. I've learned that weak NFC West team is still going to make the playoffs even if a more worthy NFC East team has a better record. I've learned that the Jaguars CAN actually win at home against the Texans .... barely. I've learned that the Dallas team has no heart so far this year. Finally I've learned that Pittsburgh's D is still greater than Baltimore's D. On to the Picks!

SUNDAY OCTOBER 5TH

Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers (-7.5)

I know the Chiefs threw up a few last week against the Broncos but first they were at home and second it was against Denver's Defense. Come on! I've seen high school teams with more pop than the Denver team. This week they face a squad with talent on both sides of the ball. It won't matter who is under center for Kansas City because the Panthers will make it a long day for them.

Panthers -7.5

Chicago Bears (-4) at Detroit Lions

I hate these Vegas screwy spreads. The ones where I'm more shocked at how low the spread is than how high it should be. What does Vegas know applies here. Last week that was the Eagles Bear's game for me and I got killed on that. This week the Bears are involved again. Don't bet on the Lions overrides that and I'll take the Bears and their resurgent D.

Bears -4

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-6)

I was so high on the Pack this year and so ready to root for somebody else to lead them who wasn't named Brett Favre. Rodgers came out like a white knight to start the season and just as quickly has faded. Atlanta on the other hand isn't exactly the cupcake that I thought they would be. Matt Ryan has shown he may be worth the investment that the Falcons placed in him when they drafted him. He's only going to get better. While I don't see the Falcons trotting into Green Bay and taking home a victory I also don't see the Pack winning by six.

Falcons +6

San Diego Chargers (-5) at Miami Dolphins

Can the Dolphins do the same thing to the Chargers that they did to the Patriots? You bet! Will it actually happen? You better not bet! Let's face it. The Dolphins only had one of those kind of games in them this season against a tough opponent. The Chargers won't fall for those kind of shenanigans under Cam Cam (did I really just say that?). The Lightning Bolts will come out quick and fly home with victory under their belts.

Chargers -5

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (-5)

This (and probably most from here on out for the NFC East) is a must win game for the Giants. You can't go down two in their division this year and expect to win. They play at home against a team who is showing themselves to be soft this year. Expect the Seachickens to keep it up and the Giants to punish them.

Giants -5

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (even)

So let's look at the Eagles. One week they hang with the Cowgirls in Dallas in an exciting high scoring game and lose. The next they battle the Steelers at home in a defensive game and win. The following they lose on the road to the Bears in a tight one. The Redskins on the other hand Lost the opener against the champs and haven't lost since including on the road against Dallas last week. Winning twice on the road in the NFC East would be soooo sweet. Um ... not gonna happen though.

Eagles win

Tennessee Titans (-2) at Baltimore Ravens

This should be the first real test of the Titans offense. Up until now they haven't really been exposed for anything but they haven't played anyone tough except for an out of sync Jaguar squad in Week 1. The Ravens had a short week after a tough Monday night loss in Pittsburgh. Their defense will be hungry to swallow up an old QB like Collins. Of course most people in Baltimore are hungry to swallow up .... never mind.

Ravens +2

Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) at Houston Texans

The Colts get some healthy O-line help this week and that spells trouble for the one thing the Texans could be proud of, their Defensive line. Give Peyton more time against the Texan secondary and you've got yourself an equation for a big fantasy points game for Mr. Advertisement himself Manning.

Colts -4.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos (-2.5)

Does anybody really believe that the Broncos are for real after their D let up 33 to the Chiefs? What the hell was that? The Bucs have a pretty solid squad on both sides of the ball and should be able to apply some pressure to Mr. Arm Strength, Jay Cutler. That will make things difficult since his Defense is allowing something like 78 points a game.

Buccaneers +2.5

Buffalo Bills (-4) at Arizona Cardinals

Sleeper vs. Sleeper!!! What to do what to do? Well it's actually easy. I'll take the sleeper that has shown some football skill and not the one that will go to the playoffs because their division sucks ass.

Bills -4

New England Patriots (-1) at San Francisco 49er's

This Matt Cassell guy sucks. Either that or what we've all been saying outside of those on the Boston payroll believe. You know that Belichick is only good with Tom Brady under center. I mean how can you screw up coaching when you have a couple of future hall of famers on your team. Well el Senor Sleeveless Hoodie is finding out that you actually have to be smart to win in the NFL .... that or play against teams like the 49er's.

Patriots -1

Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys (-12.5)

Something tells me that we won't be seeing Chad Ocho Cinco kissing the star this weekend. But I've really got a funny feeling about this spread on the game. No ... I don't think the Cowboys will win by 12.5. I actually think they'll win by 25. You can bet the only WR show that's going on in Dallas this Sunday will be T.O. courtesy of Tony Romo.

Cowboys -12.5

Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars (even)

If anyone actually believes the Steelers are just hoping to survive in Jacksonville this weekend they are dead wrong. I really think Mewelde Moore is prepping himself for a big game. I don't know what it is but whens the last time you saw a running back low on the charts get a chance to showcase himself? It doesn't happen often. I haven't seen enough from the Jags to make me come off of my hometown picks yet.

Steelers win

MONDAY OCTOBER 6

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (-4)

I didn't know if I would say this this year but the Saints are looking pretty solid. The Vikings, and I'll remind everyone again, the preseason favorite to go to the Super Bowl look like crap. But the fun side story in this game is the Adrian Peterson vs. Reggie Bush show. Two of the most exciting backs from college meeting in the NFL on the national stage. I'm hoping for some fireworks and expecting the Saints to come out on top.

Saints -4

Last Weeks Record: 8-5

Season Record: 32-28